Do economists have good prediction models?
Do they accept new ones?
The Kuhn effect.
Pierre Lescanne, Ecole normale superieure de Lyon, France
In this talk I will not talk science but about science.
In the current economic crisis, many voices criticize the ability of
our economists to foresee the future. Indeed, despite they master
sophisticated mathematical tools, they were and still are unable to
anticipate the future because they stick to mathematical models which
do not reflect the real world. Obviously I am not an expert in
financial economy and I do not claim to be, but using my own
experience in game theory, a branch of economy, I am inclined to agree
with those judgments. I call "Kuhn effect" the current attitude of
rigid game theorists vis-a-vis new mathematical tools, as a credit to
the game theorist Harold W. Kuhn and the historian of science and
epistemologist Thomas Kuhn. Actually since 1970, game theorists are
aware that finite extensive game theory is not an adequate model of
escalation, since their theory showed that escalation is irrational
whereas human agents do escalate. They called this a "paradox". In
previous talks at this workshop I have presented the coinductive model
of infinite extensive games which gives a correct explanation of
escalation. In this talk, I will present how those ideas were received
by the traditional and rigid game theorist community and try to draw some
lessons.
Pataraia's construction of fixed points for endomaps in metric spaces.
Paweł Waszkiewicz, Jagiellonian University, Poland
I explain how a recent constructive proof (due to Dimitri
Pataraia) of the fact that a monotone map on a pointed dcpo has the least
fixed point can be used to deduce famous fixed point theorems of Banach, Caristi and Tarski.
TBA
Grzegorz Matecki, Jagiellonian University, Poland
We consider bipartite matching in the on-line version as follows.
There is a bipartite graph G=(U,V,E), in which vertices in V are given
a priori and each vertex u in U arrives in the on-line fashion (with
all its incident edges). An on-line algorithm matches each such vertex
u to a previously unmatched adjacent vertex in V, if there is one.
Decisions made by the algorithm are irrevocable. The objective is to
maximize the size of the resulting matching. It is easy to observe
that any greedy algorithm (never leave vertex u unmatched if a match
is possible) matches at least n/2 edges where n is the size of the
optimal matching with G given at once. This number is optimal and
there is no better algorithm.
We propose the following modification of an on-line matching. The
algorithm matches each incoming vertex u in U to a set S(u) of
adjacent vertices in V (instead of one vertex). In case when S(u) and
S(x) for already existing x in U are not disjoint the algorithm must
remove all common vertices from S(x). Additionally, the algorithm has
to obey the rule: each S(x) must not become empty if only it was
initialized with a nonempty set of vertices. An algorithm satisfying
the above condition is called adaptive. In this approach a vertex u in
U can be always matched to a vertex from S(u) (if S(u) is not empty).
Therefore, the number of matched edges is equal to the number of
nonempty sets S(u).
We are going to present the optimal adaptive on-line algorithm which
breaks n/2 barrier and matches at least
(1-pi cosh(sqrt{3}pi/2))n+o(n)=0.589n+o(n) edges.
On density of truth of infinite logic
Zofia Kostrzycka, Opole University of Technology, Poland
Abstract available in pdf file here.
Probability distributions on Boolean functions & Shannon effect.
Antoine Genitrini, Université de Versailles St-Quentin en Yvelines, France
The Shannon effect states that “almost all” Boolean functions have a
complexity close
to the maximal possible for the uniform probability distribution. In
this talk we will define some probability distributions on functions,
induced by random expressions, and prove that this model does not
exhibit the Shannon effect.
Asymptotics and random sampling for BCI and BCK
Olivier Bodini, Alice Jacquot, Danièle Gardy, France
A bijection between combinatorial maps and embedded syntactic trees
enables us to deduce asymptotics and random samplers for BCI an BCK.
(changed) Dynamic Threshold Strategy for generalized secretary problem.
Jakub Kozik, Jagiellonian University, Poland
TBA